DEVELOPMENT OF STUDENTS' ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE PREDICTION MODEL USING DECISION TREE

Abstract

Students' academic performance prediction model is a model developed to reduce the students'
failure rate in higher institutions of learning. The model is developed to ascertain the students'
academic performance by looking at the extent of socio-economic background on the student's
performance and the effect of the student's previous academic status (GPA) on his/her future
performance. This paper proposed the J48 Decision tree model for predicting the academic
performance of third-year Bachelor of Science (B. Sc) students in Computer Science at Ajayi
Crowther University, Oyo as they proceed to the final year. The data collected from the department
contain the students' Name, Matriculation number, Gender, State of Origin, Current G.P.A. The
parameter used as the Key Performance Indicator (KPI) is the Current G.P. The model is created
using a Training data set, and the performance is confirmed by the Supplied test set and applied to the
student's data to generate the Prediction model. The extracted knowledge from the prediction model
is used to identify and profile the student to determine the student's level of success in the final year.
The outcome of the work showed that the students have a high tendency to have the same GPA in the
final year

Keywords: Data mining, Educational Data Mining, Key Performance Indicator, Prediction, Decision tree